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Creating an Indian ‘FANG’
India’s leading industrial company with over four decades on India’s stock market, Reliance has grown a remarkable 164,927x (1977-2021) and has now reached a tipping point where EBITDA generated from its consumer services will exceed its energy business for the first time. Under the leadership of Mukesh Ambani, son of the founder, Dhirubhai Ambani, Reliance has become India’s leader in energy, retail and mobile (a Chevron, Walmart and AT&T under one roof) - which will combine to create the fastest growing internet platform in India. Jio Mart is set to become an ‘Indian FANG’ via partnerships with Facebook and Google.
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Indian Retail: Hyper Growth Market
Reliance is well placed to benefit from the opportunity presented by Indian retail, a hyper growth market which will see Unorganised Retail expanding at a 9% CAGR (2019-2025) to reach $1.2 trillion - with Organised Retail growing 2x faster to reach $237bn (16% share from 11%).
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Reliance Industries - Going Green
The energy giant revolutionised India’s energy sector in the 1970s and the development of Jamnagar, the world’s largest refiner, processing 1.2m bpd, has transformed India from a net importer of petroleum products into a net exporter. The oil to chemical business produces products such as PET (plastic bottles) and polyester. Since 2020, a transition to New Energy is underway with the goal to be net zero by 2035. Existing energy cash flows will fund $10bn of capex to develop a Green Energy Giga Complex built upon four pillars: solar; battery; hydro and wind.
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Reliance Retail - A Juggernaut
Founded in 2006 Reliance Retail was the first Indian retailer to cross $10 billion in revenues, reaching $20 billion in 2020. The largest retailer in India by reach, scale and profitability with 12,800 stores across 7,000 cities and 156m registered customers - Reliance spans grocery, fashion and consumer electronics - yet still has only an estimated marketshare of 1-2%.
Grocery is dominated via three formats: Reliance Fresh (neighbourhood stores); Reliance Smart (large destination supermarkets); and Reliance Market (wholesale cash & carry stores) with a 40% share of organised grocery yet only a 1% share of total grocery. Reliance Digital is India’s leading electronics player with a 13% market share. In apparel Reliance have a leading 3% share with in-house value brand, Reliance Trends, India's largest fashion retailer.
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Jio
Jio’s entry into the market sparked a digital revolution which has led to dramatic behavioural changes in society. Mobile speeds increased from 1 Mbps to 20 Mbps, facilitating a surge in data usage from 240MB a month to 11.3GB - a 40x increase - causing India’s share in global data traffic to expand from less than 1% to 17%. With over 400m customers, Jio has a leading marketshare of over 30%. In 2020 Reliance sold 33% of Jio Platforms to investors valuing the business at $65bn - including Facebook’s $5.7bn for a 9.99% stake and $4.5bn from Google.
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Jio Mart
The recent investments into Jio Platforms have paved a way to attack India’s ecommerce market where it will go head to head with incumbent Flipkart (majority owned by Walmart, with a 44% market share) and Amazon India (33% share). The Facebook partnership will leverage their users and 400m Whatsapp users to support a push into ecommerce via the creation of JioMart, linking Reliance Retail with India’s 13m Kirana stores (mom and pop). Meanwhile the Google partnership will work on providing an entry level smartphone to serve an expected 500m customers within the next 3 years who will want 4G and 5G connectivity. India’s ecommerce market is estimated to grow to $105bn by 2025 from $30bn in 2019 - a 23% CAGR- taking online retail penetration from 5% to 11.2%. Grocery is estimated to grow 17x to $33bn - growing at c. 77% CAGR for a 5.6% penetration rate - of which Reliance will capture 60%.